The Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (2014-2020)

Abstract

The study investigated effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria. The natural log of the GDP was used as the dependent variables against the explanatory monetary policy variables: monetary policy rate, money supply, exchange rate, lending rate and investment. The time series data is the market controlled period covering 1986 to 2016. The study adopted an Ordinary Least Squared technique and also conducted the unit root and co-integration tests. The study showed that long run relationship exists among the variables. Also, the core finding of this study showed that monetary policy rate, interest rate, and investment have insignificant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Money supply however has significant positive effect on growth in Nigeria. Exchange rate has significant negative effect on GDP in Nigeria. Money supply and investment granger cause economic growth, while economic growth causes interest rate in Nigeria. On the overall, monetary policy explain 98% of the changes in economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, the study concluded that monetary policy can be effectively used to control Nigerian economy and thus a veritable tool for price stability and improve output.

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Information

Monetary policy is monetary management techniques put in place by the government through the central bank to control money stock that is supply of money in order to influence broad macro-economic objectives which include price stability, high level of employment, sustainable economic growth and balance of payment equilibrium. These broad objectives are achieved through the use of appropriate instruments, depending on which objective the policy formulated want to achieve on the level of development of the country.

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Over the years, the major goals of monetary policy have often been the two later objectives namely: Inflation targeting and exchange rate policy. These objectives have dominated the Central Bank of Nigerian’s monetary policy focus based on the assumption that these are essential tools of achieving macroeconomic stability (Ajayi, 1999). The role of the Central Bank of Nigeria in controlling the monetary policy has facilitated the emergency of active money market where treasury bills, a financial instrument used for open market operations and raising debt for government has grown in volume and in value becoming a prominent earning asset for investors and source of balancing liquidity in the market. The two fundamental goals of monetary policy are to promote maximum sustainability output and employment and to maintain a sustainable price level in the economy, by so doing, the Central Bank has to checkmate the economy in the short run and in the long run, comparing the estimates to its goal for the output and price stability. If there be a gap between the estimates and the goals, the Central Bank of Nigeria has to embark on contractionary or expansionary measures to tackle the problems observed (Chimezie, 2012).

Monetary policy refers to the combination of measures designed to regulate the value, supply and cost of money in an economy in consonance with the level of economic activities. It can be described as the art of controlling the direction and movement of monetary and credit facilities in pursuance of stable price and economic growth in the economy (CBN 1992). There is no consensus among economist as to whether government intervention through the use of monetary policy will bring about economic stabilization. This disagreement divided the economy into different schools of thought.

Statement of the problem

In spite of these controversies, the Nigeria government in collaboration with its monetary authority still adopts monetary policy to regulate the economy. Thus adopting monetary policy in manipulating the fluctuations experienced so far in the economy, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) undertake both contractionary and expansionary measures. The reason for this action is because monetary policy has been successfully being introduced and implemented in developing economy. Therefore, it becomes necessary to examine how variations in monetary policy (money supply) can be used to influence output. The examination will cover a period of twenty-one years.
One of the major objectives of monetary policy in Nigeria is stabilization of economic growth. Nigerian government has adopted various monetary policies through Central Bank of Nigeria over years to achieve economic growth. Despite the increasing emphasis on manipulation of monetary policy in Nigeria, the problem surrounding its economic growth still persists. Such problems include high unemployment rate, low
investment, high rate of inflation and unstable foreign exchange rate. These perceived problems are being claimed to have caused a fast decline in the economic growth of Nigeria. It, therefore, becomes necessary to highlight the monetary policy in Nigeria and examine the extent to which it has actually contributed to the growth in the
economy.

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